Angelo Taningco
Economist, Treasury Group

Overseas Filipinos (OF) personal remittances grew 7.1% year-on-year (yoy) to $2.6 billion in May, a turnaround from its 5.2% yoy decline in April, based on the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) latest OF remittance data released on 17 July. This brought the cumulative OF personal remittance total spanning the January-May period to $12.6 billion, which is 5.2% higher from the first five months of last year (Figure 1).

Figure 1: OF Remittance Growth
Jan. 2015 – May 2017
(yoy %)

 
OF cash remittances-which accounted for 90% of OF personal remittances-rose 5.5% yoy to $2.3 billion in May, a rebound from its 5.9% yoy drop in April. By region, 36% of the total came from the Americas followed by the Middle East (30%), Asia (17%), and Europe (14%), and Oceania (2%). In the top ten country sources of OF cash remittances for the month, two were from the Americas (US and Canada); two from Asia (Japan and Singapore); two from Europe (Germany and United Kingdom); and four from the Middle East (Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The BSP reported that the primary OF cash remittance growth contributors for the month were UAE, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and US.

Cumulative OF cash remittances totaled $11.3 billion in January-May, up 4.5% yoy, with the top ten country sources being the US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Singapore, Japan, UK , Qatar, Kuwait, Canada, and Germany (Figure 2). Six of these countries recorded positive yoy growth in their cumulative totals-namely, Canada, Japan, Qatar, Singapore, UAE, and the US whereas the remaining four incurred negative growth.

Figure 2: Cumulative OF Cash Remittances, by Top Ten Country Source
Jan. – May 2017
($ billion)

 
We expect positive OF remittance growth to be sustained for the rest of the year overall amid improving economic activity-including employment and wage growth-in most of the country sources together with ongoing overseas deployment. We maintain our full-year 2017 OF cash remittance growth forecast of 6.5%.

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