Angelo Taningco
Economist, Treasury Group
Key interest rates were kept unchanged by the BSP’s Monetary Board on 22 March, consistent with our expectation and by majority of market analysts. This was made despite inflation soaring above market expectations and rate of peso depreciation relatively high in the first two months of the year.
The central bank’s latest inflation forecasts using 2012-based CPI are 3.9% for 2018 and 3.0% for 2019, both within the central bank’s inflation target range of 2.0% – 4.0%. However, the Board assessed that risks to the inflation outlook are tilted towards the upside on the basis of potential minimum wage and transport fare hikes; however, it highlighted certain “non-monetary measures” (ex. unconditional cash transfers, transport subsidies) and rice policy reforms that can help moderate inflationary pressures. The Board also took note of rising inflation expectations and mentioned that economic growth is solid and that this can “absorb some policy tightening if warranted.”
Our full-year inflation forecast using 2012-based CPI is still 4.0%, but we also think that the upside risks to our outlook are stronger. We think US announcements of global steel and aluminum tariffs as well as tariffs on certain goods from China and restrictions on Chinese investments may trigger retaliation from China and/or other affected trading partners of US. If this escalates into a global trade war, we could see sharper global inflation and peso depreciation—both of which would contribute to domestic inflation. Moreover, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East still exist, and if it worsens could raise global oil prices that in turn would put more inflationary pressures in the domestic economy.
We expect headline inflation to rise further, potentially to hover above the upper end of the central bank’s target range, in the next couple of months. We also foresee the country’s balance of payments (BOP) to record deficit positions in the near term. In addition, we still expect the US central bank to proceed with its gradual pace of policy rate normalization—with the next US rate hike expected by the market to be conducted in June. (The first US policy rate hike for the year was made on 21 March and we expect 2 more US rate hikes before the year ends. However, there’s a chance that there might be a 4th US rate hike for the year.) As inflationary and peso depreciation pressures mount, the argument for a modest monetary policy adjustment strengthens. Against this backdrop, we still maintain our 25bps policy rate hike forecast for the year, and we think that this could manifest as early as June.
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