Fixed Income Markets: End of the Hiking Cycle

The bond markets have been under extreme pressure since early 2021. Bond investors globally for the past year would rather forget the painful rate hike cycle they experienced, where rates globally rose at a very fast pace as the inflation problem haunted economies everywhere. Our very own Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), raised its policy rates by 425 bps in total since last year, bringing the benchmark rates to 6.25%.

Most recently, BSP Governor Felipe Medalla indicated a pause as inflation pressures appear to be easing. This factor furthers the point of some camps with the view that we may be at the end of the painful hiking cycle. It may not be a certainty, but it appears that we are headed in that direction. Local bond rates rallied (lower yields) by 50-100 bps YTD on views that the BSP will end the hiking cycle this 2023.

After closing at 7% at the end of  2022, the 10Y RPGB recently broke the 6% resistance level and as a result bond funds have seen modest YTD returns of 5.50%-6.50%.

For more exclusive investing content like this, you can sign up to our newsletter here: https://www.securitybank.com/personal/investments/subscribe/ and become part of our investing community! We will be sending you regular exclusive investing content and updates after you sign up.

Is there juice left for the markets?

There is growing concern that the markets were ahead of themselves. Local PHP bond yields dropped 50-100 bps whereas the BSP raised rates by 75 bps YTD before indicating a pause. The current 10Y BVAL is now inverted with the BSP policy rate (5.90% vs 6.25%). Given the huge rally in yields that the market has seen from year-end 2022, the question looms if there are still gains to be expected for the local bond space amidst the inverted bond curve.

 

It can be viewed that yields may have moved too fast making bonds look expensive, but the fact of the matter is, the hiking cycle is now behind us. The BSP is inclined to pause as already beginning to be communicated but the possibility that they will deliver one more rate hike as insurance remains. The curve being inverted at this point may not be the case a year from now as the BSP is expected to pivot in 2024.

Thus, the possibility of reaping further gains in the bond space remains high as the scenario of BSP reversing its policy stance and cutting rates would benefit local bonds in an 8–10-month period.

Prior to the 2020 CoVid pandemic, the 10Y BVAL rates traded at 4.50%-4.70% which is 90-100 bps from where we are now. The BSP benchmark rate, on the other hand, was at 4.0% before seeing it drop to 2% brought about by the measures required to combat the raging effects by the closure of the economy during the pandemic.

We have seen the highs in rates last year, but it does not mean we should ignore and not lock in the still relatively attractive yields at present.

Short-term rates remain elevated with the 1Y Treasury Bills close to 6.00%. With the BSP set to finally end this painful hiking cycle, the yield curve will normalize to a  steeper  slope with the shorter maturities also catching up. Investors can be  confident in locking in at current yields.

To learn more about Bond Funds, you may go to:

SB Peso Bond fund: https://www.securitybank.com/personal/investments/unit-investment-trust-funds/sb-peso-bond-fund/

Subscribe

Search

AllHome - Agro
AllHome - Antipolo
AllHome - Bacolod
AllHome - Bataan
AllHome - Butuan
AllHome - Cabanatuan
AllHome - Cauayan
AllHome - CDO
AllHome - Cebu
AllHome - Dasmariñas
AllHome - Evia
AllHome - Gapan
AllHome - General Santos
AllHome - General Trias
AllHome - Global South
AllHome - Iloilo
AllHome - Imus
AllHome - Kawit
AllHome - Koronadal
AllHome - Las Piñas
AllHome - Libis
AllHome - Malolos
AllHome - Mintal
AllHome - Naga
AllHome - North Molino
AllHome - Pampanga
AllHome - QC
AllHome - QuickFix Camella East
AllHome - QuickFix Farm
AllHome - QuickFix M1 Annex
AllHome - QuickFix Masibay
AllHome - QuickFix Springville
AllHome - QuickFix Symphony
AllHome - QuickFix Venezia
AllHome - Salawag
AllHome - San Ildefonso
AllHome - Santiago
AllHome - Shaw
AllHome - Silang
AllHome - SJDM
AllHome - South Molino
AllHome - Sta. Maria
AllHome - Sta. Rosa
AllHome - Sto. Tomas
AllHome - Taguig
AllHome - Tanza
AllHome - WCC
AllHome - QuickFix Citta Italia

  • Aerophone - Ayala Center Cebu
  • Aerophone - Cybertech Quezon City
  • Aerophone - SM Cebu
  • Aerophone - SM Manila
  • Aerophone - SM San Lazaro

This will close in 0 seconds

  • CYA Industries Inc - Bacolod
  • CYA Industries Inc - CDO
  • CYA Industries Inc - Cebu
  • CYA Industries Inc Showroom - Shangrila
  • My Homedepot - Baliuag Tangos
  • My Homedepot - Alabang Zapote
  • My Homedepot - Angono
  • My Homedepot - Barrera
  • My Homedepot - Batangas
  • My Homedepot - Cabanatuan
  • My Homedepot - Calapan
  • My Homedepot - Caloocan
  • My Homedepot - Candelaria
  • My Homedepot - Candon
  • My Homedepot - Daet
  • My Homedepot - Dasma
  • My Homedepot - Fairview
  • My Homedepot - Guagua
  • My Homedepot - Gumaca
  • My Homedepot - Iba
  • My Homedepot - Imus
  • My Homedepot - Los Banos
  • My Homedepot - Malasiqui
  • My Homedepot - Marikina
  • My Homedepot - Mayapyap
  • My Homedepot - Nayon Nova
  • My Homedepot - Niog 3
  • My Homedepot - Novaliches
  • My Homedepot - Pasong Putik
  • My Homedepot - Olongapo
  • My Homedepot - Palanginan
  • My Homedepot - Pilar
  • My Homedepot - Paranaque
  • My Homedepot - Pulilan
  • My Homedepot - Roxas
  • My Homedepot - San Jose
  • My Homedepot - San Marcelino
  • My Homedepot - San Rafael
  • My Homedepot - Santiago
  • My Homedepot - Silang
  • My Homedepot - Sorsogon
  • My Homedepot - Sta Cruz
  • My Homedepot - Tarlac
  • My Homedepot - Taytay
  • My Homedepot - Urdaneta

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Petbuddy Antipolo
  • Petbuddy Bataan
  • Petbuddy Dasmariñas
  • Petbuddy Evia
  • Petbuddy Malolos
  • Petbuddy North Molino
  • Petbuddy South Molino
  • Petbuddy Springville
  • Petbuddy Sta. Rosa
  • Petbuddy Taguig

This will close in 3 seconds

  • Allbikes Evia
  • Allbikes Sta Rosa

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Allsports Bataan
  • Allsports Evia
  • Allsports Malolos
  • Allsports Nomo
  • Allsports Sjdm
  • Allsports Taguig
  • Alltoys Bataan
  • Alltoys Evia
  • Alltoys Malolos
  • Alltoys Nomo
  • Alltoys Sta. Rosa
  • Alltoys Taguig

This will close in 1 seconds

  • Finds - Bataan
  • Finds - Dasmarinas
  • Finds - General Trias
  • Finds - Iloilo
  • Finds - Las Pinas
  • Finds - Malolos
  • Finds - Naga
  • Finds - NOMO
  • Finds - Shaw Blvd.
  • Finds - SJDM
  • Finds - Sta.Rosa
  • Finds - Taguig

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Market Liberty - Evia

This will close in 0 seconds

  • No Name - Bataan
  • No Name - Dasmarinas
  • No Name - Pampanga
  • No Name - Sta. Rosa

This will close in 0 seconds

  • The Athlete'S Foot - Bataan
  • The Athlete'S Foot - Evia
  • The Athlete'S Foot - Sta Rosa

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Pull And Bear - Cebu
  • Pull And Bear - SM Megamall
  • Pull And Bear - Trinoma

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Zara - Cebu
  • Zara - Glorietta
  • Zara - Greenbelt
  • Zara - SM Megamall
  • Zara - SM Mall of Asia
  • Zara - ONE BHS, BGC
  • Zara - Rockwell
  • Zara - Shangrila
  • Zara - Trinoma

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Massimo Dutti - Greenbelt 5
  • Massimo Dutti - Rockwell

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Bershka - Cebu
  • Bershka - Glorietta
  • Bershka - Megamall
  • Bershka - Mall of Asia
  • Bershka - Shangrila

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Stradivarius - SM Aura
  • Stradivarius - Glorietta
  • Stradivarius - Megamall
  • Stradivarius - Shangrila

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Mandaue Foam - Butuan
  • Mandaue Foam - Cebu
  • Mandaue Foam - Banilad
  • Mandaue Foam - Bohol
  • Mandaue Foam - Cebu
  • Mandaue Foam - Quimpo
  • Mandaue Foam - Shaw Blvd.
  • Mandaue Foam - (Philfoam) Cainta, Rizal
  • Mandaue Foam - (Philfoam) Las Pinas
  • Mandaue Foam - (Philfoam) Lipa, Batangas
  • Mandaue Foam - (Philfoam) Quezon Avenue

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Our Builders Warehouse - Bocaue
  • Our Builders Warehouse - Guiguinto
  • Our Builders Warehouse - Mabalacat
  • Our Builders Warehouse - Malolos
  • Our Builders Warehouse - Tagaytay
  • Our Builders Warehouse - Dasmarinas

This will close in 0 seconds

  • 158 Designers Blvd - Pasay

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Anne Klein - Rockwell

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Armani Exchange - Rockwell

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Bobbi Brown - SM Mall of Asia

This will close in 0 seconds

  • Charriol - Rockwell
  • Charriol - Pasay

This will close in 0 seconds